Who Will Win the 2025 Ballon d’Or? Top 5 Favorites Ranked

Introduction

Every football season ends with debates, predictions, and excitement about one of the most prestigious individual awards in the sport: the Ballon d’Or. In 2025, the competition is fiercer than ever. With world-class performances across Europe, Champions League dominance, and young stars rising to global attention, the race for this year’s Ballon d’Or feels wide open — but a few names stand above the rest.

In this article, we’ll break down the top 5 contenders for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, look at what makes their cases strong, and try to predict who will ultimately lift the golden trophy.

What Matters in the Ballon d’Or Race?

Before ranking players, it’s important to understand what influences voting. Journalists and football experts around the world cast their votes based on:

Team trophies (Champions League, major leagues, international tournaments).
Individual performance (goals, assists, influence in big matches).
Consistency (performing at a high level all season).
Narrative (historic achievements, comeback stories, or young phenoms breaking records).

With those criteria in mind, here are the players currently leading the race.

1. Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain) – The Leading Favorite

Few would have expected Ousmane Dembélé to be at the top of the Ballon d’Or conversation a couple of years ago, but in 2025, he is the clear favorite.

Why He Could Win

Historic Treble: PSG won Ligue 1, the French Cup, and most importantly, the Champions League — the trophy that usually decides the Ballon d’Or race.
Decisive Performances: Dembélé delivered goals and assists in crucial knockout stage matches, proving himself on the biggest stage.
Narrative Factor: His career has been full of injuries and setbacks. Now, leading PSG to their first Champions League title, his comeback story makes the vote even stronger.

What Could Stop Him

PSG have multiple stars, and sometimes voters split recognition among them.
Any late dip in performance could shift momentum toward Barcelona’s young superstar.

2. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) – The Young Phenom

At just 17, Lamine Yamal has already established himself as one of the brightest stars in world football. Some experts even argue he could become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner ever.

Why He Could Win

Consistent Brilliance: Despite his age, Yamal has been a consistent match-winner for Barcelona.
Records Broken: He has shattered multiple “youngest player” records and continues to prove that age is just a number.
Narrative: Football voters love history. If he wins, it would be a landmark moment remembered for decades.

What Could Hold Him Back

Barcelona didn’t dominate Europe this year like PSG did, which hurts his chances.
He may be seen as “the future” rather than “the present” by voters.

3. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) – The Consistent Superstar

Year after year, Mohamed Salah puts up world-class numbers, and 2025 is no exception.

Why He Could Win

Elite Stats: Salah’s goals and assists remain among the best in Europe.
Influence: Liverpool’s attack still revolves around him, and he regularly delivers in key matches.
Reputation: As one of the best forwards of the past decade, many voters respect his sustained excellence.

Why He Might Fall Short

Liverpool didn’t win the Champions League, which weakens his case.
Competing against treble-winning stars may push him lower in the final ranking.

4. Raphinha (Barcelona) – The Consistent Winger

Raphinha isn’t always in the headlines like Yamal or Salah, but his performances make him a serious outsider contender.

Strengths

Big-Match Contributions: He stepped up in crucial La Liga matches.
Work Rate & Creativity: More than just goals, he offers energy and assists.
Barcelona’s Spotlight: Being part of one of football’s biggest clubs always helps.

Weaknesses

He is often overshadowed by Lamine Yamal.
Without a Champions League title, his campaign may not be strong enough for a win.

5. Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain) – The Midfield Engine

While attackers dominate Ballon d’Or votes, Vitinha deserves recognition. His midfield mastery was crucial for PSG’s treble.

Why He Could Win

Control of Matches: Vitinha dictated tempo in big games and provided key passes.
Champions League Success: Midfielders from winning sides often get recognition.
Underrated Value: Sometimes, voters appreciate unsung heroes in successful teams.

Why He’s a Long Shot

Midfielders rarely win unless they have iconic moments (like Modrić in 2018).
Dembélé’s spotlight makes it hard for him to gather enough votes.

Other Names Worth Mentioning

Kylian Mbappé: Always a superstar, but his move to Real Madrid hasn’t yet produced the expected dominance.
Pedri: Consistently excellent, though overshadowed by Yamal this season.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Napoli’s standout, but not enough silverware this year.

Prediction: Who Will Win the Ballon d’Or 2025?

After reviewing performances, trophies, and narratives, the answer seems clear: Ousmane Dembélé is the frontrunner for the 2025 Ballon d’Or. His Champions League heroics, combined with PSG’s treble, give him the strongest claim.

However, football is unpredictable. If voters lean toward a historic moment, Lamine Yamal could steal the spotlight and shock the world. Either way, the 2025 Ballon d’Or promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory.

Conclusion

The Ballon d’Or is more than just a trophy — it represents greatness, history, and legacy. Whether it’s Dembélé’s redemption story, Yamal’s rise as a teenage prodigy, or Salah’s consistent excellence, the winner in 2025 will write their name into football history.

Whoever wins, fans are already enjoying the debates, the drama, and the anticipation of football’s biggest individual award.

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